With six days left before the Seoul mayoral by-election, the Grand National Party’s Na Kyung-won managed to come from behind in a latest opinion poll, although her lead over liberal independent rival Park Won-soon was within the margin of error.

In a JoongAng Ilbo poll conducted Monday and Tuesday on 1,695 Seoul voters, Na was leading the race with 45.9 percent, while Park followed with 42.3 percent. The poll has a 95 percent confidence level with a plus or minus 2.4 percent margin of error.

Bae Il-do, an independent candidate, was backed by 1.5 percent of respondents, while 10.3 percent gave no response or said they were undecided.

Under the election law, no polls conducted after yesterday can be reported publicly. It took one month for Na to bridge the gap with Park.

On Sept. 17, Na was backed by 37 percent of respondents, while Park was the runaway leader with 45.8 percent support.

The 8.8 percentage point gap went down to 4.6 percentage points on Oct. 1, when Park’s rating was 42 percent to Na’s 37.4 percent.

In a survey conducted Friday and Saturday, the gap was reduced to 1 percentage point, and Na managed to get on top of Park in the latest survey.

The poll showed that the traditional supporters of the ruling party are more united after Park Geun-hye, the former chairwoman of the GNP strongly supported by conservative voters, declared her intention to back Na’s campaign. For the first time in four years, Park appeared at a campaign event on Oct. 13 to support Na in seven hours of stumping.

Among those who identified themselves as GNP supporters, Na’s approval ratings climbed from 68 percent to 87 percent over the past month. She was particularly favored by older voters. Among voters older than 60, Na’s rating went from 49 percent to 72 percent.

In the latest poll, 52 percent of self-employed voters said they back Na.

Park maintained the support of liberals, young people and office workers. Of the voters who support the Democratic Party, 82 percent said they would vote for Park.

The poll showed that 58 percent of voters in their 30s and 48 percent of voters in their 40s support Park, as well as 52 percent of white-collar workers.

Signs of Na’s growing popularity were evident in other polls. A Seoul Shinmun-Embrain poll on Oct. 11 gave Na 47.6 percent, with Park following with 44.5 percent. In another poll by the Hankyoreh, Na’s rating was 51.3 percent and Park’s 45.8 percent.

In another poll jointly conducted by three major broadcasters, the competition was still neck-and-neck, although Park led.

The poll was conducted on Sunday and Monday, and Park was backed by 40.5 percent of respondents, while 38.2 percent said they will vote for Na. The gap was within the plus-or-minus 2.3 percent margin of error.


By Ser Myo-ja [myoja@joongang.co.kr]


한글 관련 기사 [중앙일보]

결집력, 한나라 87% vs 민주당 82%

중앙일보 마지막 여론조사

10·26 서울시장 보궐선거 투표일 이전 마지막으로 실시된 서울시장 여론조사에서 한나라당 나경원 후보 45.9%, 무소속 박원순 후보 42.3%의 지지율로 나타났다. 중앙일보 조사연구팀이 17~18일 서울시민 1695명을 대상으로 실시한 여론조사 결과다. 무소속 배일도 후보는 1.5%, ‘모름·무응답’은 10.3%였다. 서울시장 보궐선거 여론조사는 선거법에 따라 투표일 D-7일인 19일까지 실시된 것만 보도할 수 있다.

　오차범위 내이긴 하지만 나 후보는 중앙일보·한국갤럽의 지난 세 차례 조사(9월 17일, 10월 1일, 14~15일)에서 박 후보에게 8.8%포인트 , 4.6%포인트 , 1.0%포인트 차로 뒤지다가 선거 전 마지막 여론조사에서 3.6%포인트 차로 첫 역전에 성공했다.

　이번 조사에서 한나라당 지지자라고 밝힌 응답자 가운데 나 후보를 찍겠다고 밝힌 사람은 87%에 달했다. 9월 17일 조사에선 68%, 지난 1일 조사에선 77%만이 나 후보에게 투표하겠다고 답변했으나 박근혜 전 한나라당 대표가 유세장에 나온 13일 이후 실시된 14~15일 조사부터 80%를 넘기 시작해 87%까지 이른 것이다. 박 전 대표의 등장 이후 범보수층의 결집현상이 나타나고 있는 셈이다. 민주당 지지자들 가운데도 82%가 박 후보를 찍겠다고 답변했다. 한 달 전인 9월 17일 조사 당시(78%)와 큰 변동이 없는 수치다.

　26일 선거 때 ‘꼭 투표할 것’이란 응답은 64.8%(1098명)였다. 여론조사 전문가들은 투표율이 45% 안팎이면 나 후보의 우세를, 50% 안팎이면 박 후보의 우세를 점치고 있다.

　이번 조사의 표본은 성·연령·지역별 인구비례에 따른 할당추출법으로 선정했고, 집 전화 RDD(임의번호 걸기) 방식으로 조사했다. 최대 허용 오차범위는 95% 신뢰 수준에서 ±2.4%포인트, 응답률은 18.7%다.